Chikhura Sachkhere 0–5 Dinamo Batumi

Chikhura Sachkhere

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Batumi

5/19/2021

David Kipiani Cup · Round of 16Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere13%

×Draw15%

Dinamo Batumi72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chikhura SachkhereExpected goals in this matchDinamo Batumi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.98

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.25

Dinamo Batumi

2.98

Dinamo Batumi creates 138% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

2.21

3.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.50

Dinamo Batumi

2.21

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

3.75

Dinamo Batumi

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Dinamo Batumi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw

28%

Chikhura Sachkhere or Dinamo Batumi

85%

Draw or Dinamo Batumi

87%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

5%

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

71%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

36%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

13%

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals

95%

Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals

79%

Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

16%

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.50 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Batumi attack 2.21 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

13%

level

15%

Dinamo Batumi scores more

72%

Dinamo Batumi at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff