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Dinamo-Auto vs Victoria — Super Liga 2019

Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Victoria
Victoria
3/17/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 2Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dinamo-Auto42%
×Draw23%
Victoria35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo-Auto
1.69
Victoria
1.52

Dinamo-Auto creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto
1.31
Victoria
1.69

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto
1.35
Victoria
2.06

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par
Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw
65%
Dinamo-Auto or Victoria
77%
Draw or Victoria
58%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
22%
Victoria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
50%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
24%
Victoria 1+ goals
78%
Victoria 2+ goals
45%
Victoria 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
55%
Victoria (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Victoria away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.31 + Victoria defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Victoria attack 1.69 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more
42%
level
23%
Victoria scores more
35%

Dinamo-Auto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo-Auto vs Victoria

Victoria beat Dinamo-Auto 2-1 in Super Liga on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Dinamo-Auto in Ternovca.