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Victoria vs Dinamo-Auto — Super Liga 2026

Victoria
Victoria
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
U. Mboula 87'
S. Essono 4'
4/29/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 7Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria54%
×Draw20%
Dinamo-Auto25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria
2.25
Dinamo-Auto
1.49

Victoria creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

Victoria
2.29
Dinamo-Auto
1.35

allows per match

Victoria
1.62
Dinamo-Auto
2.22

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par
Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

Dinamo-Auto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Victoria or draw
75%
Victoria or Dinamo-Auto
80%
Draw or Dinamo-Auto
46%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+
33%
Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals
89%
Victoria 2+ goals
65%
Victoria 3+ goals
39%
Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)
68%
Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 2.29 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.25

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.35 + Victoria defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Victoria scores more
54%
level
20%
Dinamo-Auto scores more
25%

Victoria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
S. Essono
87'
U. Mboula

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Victoria 0–2 Dinamo-Auto

Dinamo-Auto beat Victoria 2-0 in Super Liga on April 29, 2023.

Goals: S. Essono (4'), U. Mboula (87').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.