Dimitrovgrad 1–1 Sekirovo Rakovski: Result & Stats

Dimitrovgrad

FT

1 – 1

Sekirovo Rakovski

5/25/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 37Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dimitrovgrad56%

×Draw23%

Sekirovo Rakovski21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchSekirovo Rakovski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.03

Dimitrovgrad

1.82

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.03

Dimitrovgrad creates 77% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 56 away

1.58

creates per match

0.93

1.12

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.58

Sekirovo Rakovski

0.93

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.12

Sekirovo Rakovski

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw

79%

Dimitrovgrad or Sekirovo Rakovski

77%

Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski

44%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

32%

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

84%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

54%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

27%

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals

64%

Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals

28%

Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

72%

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more

56%

level

23%

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more

21%

Dimitrovgrad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff