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Dimitrovgrad vs Asenovets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Asenovets
Asenovets
9/5/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Dimitrovgrad60%
×Draw21%
Asenovets19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimitrovgrad
2.09
Asenovets
1.10

Dimitrovgrad creates 90% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 109 away

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.58
Asenovets
1.07

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.12
Asenovets
2.61

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Asenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw
81%
Dimitrovgrad or Asenovets
79%
Draw or Asenovets
40%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
37%
Asenovets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
88%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
62%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
34%
Asenovets 1+ goals
67%
Asenovets 2+ goals
30%
Asenovets 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
76%
Asenovets (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.09

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more
60%
level
21%
Asenovets scores more
19%

Dimitrovgrad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Dimitrovgrad 3–1 Asenovets

Dimitrovgrad beat Asenovets 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Dimitrovgrad.