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Asenovets vs Dimitrovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
3/21/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Asenovets53%
×Draw23%
Dimitrovgrad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
1.78
Dimitrovgrad
1.10

Asenovets creates 62% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 135 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Dimitrovgrad
0.80

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Dimitrovgrad
1.95

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
77%
Asenovets or Dimitrovgrad
77%
Draw or Dimitrovgrad
47%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
30%
Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
83%
Asenovets 2+ goals
53%
Asenovets 3+ goals
26%
Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
67%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
30%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
69%
Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Dimitrovgrad away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.95 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dimitrovgrad attack 0.80 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Asenovets scores more
53%
level
23%
Dimitrovgrad scores more
23%

Asenovets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asenovets vs Dimitrovgrad

Asenovets beat Dimitrovgrad 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 21, 2026.