Dimba Patriots vs Darajani Gogo

Dimba Patriots

CANC

00:00

Darajani Gogo

3/8/2025

Super League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots48%

×Draw26%

Darajani Gogo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dimba PatriotsExpected goals in this matchDarajani Gogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Dimba Patriots

1.48

Darajani Gogo

1.00

Dimba Patriots creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 72 away

1.69

creates per match

0.82

1.19

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Dimba Patriots

1.69

Darajani Gogo

0.82

allows per match

Dimba Patriots

1.19

Darajani Gogo

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Darajani Gogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw

74%

Dimba Patriots or Darajani Gogo

74%

Draw or Darajani Gogo

52%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+

24%

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals

77%

Dimba Patriots 2+ goals

43%

Dimba Patriots 3+ goals

19%

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals

63%

Darajani Gogo 2+ goals

26%

Darajani Gogo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)

65%

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more

48%

level

26%

Darajani Gogo scores more

26%

Dimba Patriots at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff