Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Darajani Gogo vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
11/24/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Darajani Gogo48%
×Draw29%
Dimba Patriots23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darajani Gogo
1.27
Dimba Patriots
0.79

Darajani Gogo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 27 away

creates per match

Darajani Gogo
1.35
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

Darajani Gogo
0.90
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darajani Gogo ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Darajani Gogo or draw
77%
Darajani Gogo or Dimba Patriots
71%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
52%

Winning margin

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
22%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
72%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
36%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
14%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
55%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
19%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
67%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darajani Gogo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darajani Gogo attack 1.35 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Darajani Gogo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Darajani Gogo scores more
48%
level
29%
Dimba Patriots scores more
23%

Darajani Gogo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Darajani Gogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Darajani Gogo 1–1 Dimba Patriots

Darajani Gogo and Dimba Patriots drew 1-1 in Super League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.