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Dilijan vs Ararat II — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
CANC
06:00
Ararat II
Ararat II
7/18/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 34UWC Dilijan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan28%
×Draw20%
Ararat II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
1.77
Ararat II
2.43

Ararat II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
Ararat II
1.55

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
Ararat II
1.84

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Ararat II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
48%
Dilijan or Ararat II
80%
Draw or Ararat II
72%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
14%
Ararat II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
83%
Dilijan 2+ goals
53%
Dilijan 3+ goals
26%
Ararat II 1+ goals
91%
Ararat II 2+ goals
69%
Ararat II 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
35%
Ararat II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dilijan scores more
28%
level
20%
Ararat II scores more
52%

Ararat II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dilijan vs Ararat II — Match Preview

Dilijan face Ararat II on July 18, 2020 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dilijan host Ararat II at UWC Dilijan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.