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Ararat II vs Dilijan — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
FT
5 – 2
Dilijan
Dilijan
12/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ararat II68%
×Draw16%
Dilijan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
3.08
Dilijan
1.48

Ararat II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Dilijan
1.08

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Dilijan
4.15

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Dilijan+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Dilijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
84%
Ararat II or Dilijan
84%
Draw or Dilijan
32%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
49%
Dilijan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
95%
Ararat II 2+ goals
81%
Ararat II 3+ goals
58%
Dilijan 1+ goals
77%
Dilijan 2+ goals
43%
Dilijan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
81%
Dilijan (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Dilijan away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Dilijan defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.08

Dilijan attack 1.08 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ararat II scores more
68%
level
16%
Dilijan scores more
16%

Ararat II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat II vs Dilijan

Ararat II beat Dilijan 5-2 in First League on December 3, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.