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Dijon vs Laval — Ligue 2 2018

Dijon
Dijon
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Laval
Laval
B. Soumaré 88' (pen), 30'
Xande Silva 63'
M. Le Bihan 37'
P. Cros 27' (OG)
12/26/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dijon45%
×Draw28%
Laval27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.31
Laval
0.96

Dijon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 97 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.31
Laval
0.94

allows per match

Dijon
0.98
Laval
1.30

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
73%
Dijon or Laval
72%
Draw or Laval
55%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
21%
Laval wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
73%
Dijon 2+ goals
38%
Dijon 3+ goals
14%
Laval 1+ goals
62%
Laval 2+ goals
25%
Laval 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
62%
Laval (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Laval away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.31 + Laval defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Laval attack 0.94 + Dijon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dijon scores more
45%
level
28%
Laval scores more
27%

Dijon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. Le BihanDijonDijon · F
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Rémy Duterte
14'
Sam Sanna
22'
Valentin Jacob
23'
Adama Fofana
27'
P. CrosOwn goal
30'
B. Soumaré
37'
M. Le Bihan
45'
Mickaël Le Bihan
63'
Xande Silva↳ M. Le Bihan
68'
A. Ngouyamsa← C. Traoré
68'
D. Sylla← A. Gonçalves
68'
K. N'Chobi← J. Adéoti
71'
Marvin Baudry
74'
R. Assalé← Xande Silva
74'
S. Da Silva← G. Durbant
82'
R. Duterte← E. Seidou
82'
K. Perrot← Z. Naidji
84'
O. Thioune← D. Ndong
84'
W. Nassi Ouled Bentle← M. Le Bihan
84'
L. Deaux← V. Jacob
88'
B. SoumaréPenalty

Possession

45%Dijon

Shots

9Dijon

Pass accuracy

50%Dijon

Statistics

DijonLaval
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots6
0Corners5
6Fouls17
Shots
9Total Shots6
6On Target1
1Off Target4
2Blocked1
7Inside Box4
2Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
367Total Passes441
300Accurate Passes363
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls17
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Dijon vs Laval

Dijon beat Laval 5-0 in Ligue 2 on December 26, 2022.

Goals: P. Cros (27' o.g.), B. Soumaré (30', 88' pen), M. Le Bihan (37'), Xande Silva (63').

Laval controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.