Dijon 2–0 Laval: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dijon

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Laval

C. Jullien 39', 19'

9/26/2015

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Gaston Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dijon45%

×Draw28%

Laval27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DijonExpected goals in this matchLaval

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.96

Dijon

1.31

Laval

0.96

Dijon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 97 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

0.98

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Dijon

1.31

Laval

0.94

allows per match

Dijon

0.98

Laval

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par

Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Laval →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dijon or draw

73%

Dijon or Laval

72%

Draw or Laval

55%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+

21%

Laval wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals

73%

Dijon 2+ goals

38%

Dijon 3+ goals

14%

Laval 1+ goals

62%

Laval 2+ goals

25%

Laval 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)

62%

Laval (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Laval away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.31 + Laval defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Laval attack 0.94 + Dijon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dijon scores more

45%

level

28%

Laval scores more

27%

Dijon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

19'

23'

32'

39'

52'

A. Souquet← Q. Bernard

61'

Cédric Varrault

62'

K. Perrot← C. Malonga

62'

A. N'Diaye← R. Alioui

71'

Y. Rivière← Júlio Tavares

73'

R. Habran← C. Zéoula

83'

M. Thiam← J. Bela

Dijon

Laval

16

21

27

25

26

8

11

▼

Malonga

18

Alla

6

Gonçalves

10

▼

Zéoula

7

▼

30

27

15

5

▼

Bernard

6

⚽2

22

18

20

10

▼

Bela

14

Marié

11

▼

Tavares

52'▲A. Souquet←▼Q. Bernard

71'▲Y. Rivière←▼Júlio Tavares

83'▲M. Thiam←▼J. Bela

Dijon substitutes

2Souquet7Rivière19Thiam16Basilio25Paulle

62'▲K. Perrot←▼C. Malonga

62'▲A. N'Diaye←▼R. Alioui

73'▲R. Habran←▼C. Zéoula

Laval substitutes

2Perrot19N'Diaye9Habran1Hautbois17Viale

Ligue 2: Dijon 2–0 Laval

Dijon beat Laval 2-0 in Ligue 2 on September 26, 2015.

Goals: C. Jullien (19', 39').

The match was played at Stade Gaston Gérard in Dijon.

Dijon vs Laval — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 2: Dijon 2–0 Laval