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Difai Ağsu vs Araz Saatlı — Birinci Dasta 2019

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
A. Abilov 79'
T. Zeynalov 73'
R. Quliyev 17'
S. Rahimov 5'
2/8/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 13Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Difai Ağsu60%
×Draw19%
Araz Saatlı21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difai Ağsu
2.43
Araz Saatlı
1.39

Difai Ağsu creates 75% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

Difai Ağsu
1.24
Araz Saatlı
0.92

allows per match

Difai Ağsu
1.85
Araz Saatlı
3.62

finishing

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par
Araz Saatlı+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difai Ağsu ↓

Araz Saatlı →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Difai Ağsu or draw
79%
Difai Ağsu or Araz Saatlı
81%
Draw or Araz Saatlı
40%

Winning margin

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
39%
Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
91%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
69%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
43%
Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
75%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
40%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
74%
Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difai Ağsu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

Araz Saatlı away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difai Ağsu attack 1.24 + Araz Saatlı defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.43

Araz Saatlı attack 0.92 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Difai Ağsu scores more
60%
level
19%
Araz Saatlı scores more
21%

Difai Ağsu at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Difai Ağsu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Rahimov
17'
R. Quliyev
73'
T. Zeynalov
79'
A. Abilov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Difai Ağsu 4–0 Araz Saatlı

Difai Ağsu beat Araz Saatlı 4-0 in Birinci Dasta on February 8, 2024.

Goals: S. Rahimov (5'), R. Quliyev (17'), T. Zeynalov (73'), A. Abilov (79').

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.