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Araz Saatlı vs Difai Ağsu — Birinci Dasta 2019

Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
FT
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
10/19/2023Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 5Saatli Rayon Olimpiya Idman Kompleksi Stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Araz Saatlı35%
×Draw23%
Difai Ağsu42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz Saatlı
1.56
Difai Ağsu
1.75

Difai Ağsu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

Araz Saatlı
1.14
Difai Ağsu
1.15

allows per match

Araz Saatlı
2.36
Difai Ağsu
1.98

finishing

Araz Saatlı+0.00on par
Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz Saatlı ↓

Difai Ağsu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Araz Saatlı or draw
58%
Araz Saatlı or Difai Ağsu
77%
Draw or Difai Ağsu
65%

Winning margin

Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
17%
Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
79%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
46%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
21%
Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
83%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
52%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
45%
Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz Saatlı at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz Saatlı attack 1.14 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + Araz Saatlı defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Araz Saatlı scores more
35%
level
23%
Difai Ağsu scores more
42%

Difai Ağsu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Difai Ağsu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Araz Saatlı vs Difai Ağsu

Araz Saatlı beat Difai Ağsu 5-2 in Birinci Dasta on October 19, 2023.

The match was played at Saatli Rayon Olimpiya Idman Kompleksi Stadionu in Saatli.