Difaa EL Jadida 0–0 CODM Meknès: Result & Stats

Difaa EL Jadida

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CODM Meknès

9/14/2025

Botola Pro · Round 1Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida49%

×Draw28%

CODM Meknès22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Difaa EL JadidaExpected goals in this matchCODM Meknès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.81

Difaa EL Jadida

1.35

CODM Meknès

0.81

Difaa EL Jadida creates 67% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

0.96

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida

1.00

CODM Meknès

0.67

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida

0.96

CODM Meknès

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

CODM Meknès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw

78%

Difaa EL Jadida or CODM Meknès

72%

Draw or CODM Meknès

51%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

24%

CODM Meknès wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

74%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

39%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

15%

CODM Meknès 1+ goals

56%

CODM Meknès 2+ goals

19%

CODM Meknès 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

69%

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 105 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + CODM Meknès defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

CODM Meknès attack 0.67 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

49%

level

28%

CODM Meknès scores more

22%

Difaa EL Jadida at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff