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CODM Meknès vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola 2 2025

CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
3/3/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 19Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CODM Meknès43%
×Draw31%
Difaa EL Jadida27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CODM Meknès
1.14
Difaa EL Jadida
0.83

CODM Meknès creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

CODM Meknès
1.60
Difaa EL Jadida
0.80

allows per match

CODM Meknès
0.87
Difaa EL Jadida
0.67

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw
73%
CODM Meknès or Difaa EL Jadida
69%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
57%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+
18%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals
68%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
32%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
11%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
56%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
20%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
62%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.60 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CODM Meknès scores more
43%
level
31%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
27%

CODM Meknès at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CODM Meknès vs Difaa EL Jadida

CODM Meknès and Difaa EL Jadida drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.