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Difaa EL Jadida vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
1 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
12/22/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida54%
×Draw27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.46
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.74

Difaa EL Jadida creates 97% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.00
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
81%
Difaa EL Jadida or Chabab RIF Hoceima
73%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
46%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
77%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
43%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
18%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
52%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
17%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
74%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 105 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
54%
level
27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
19%

Difaa EL Jadida at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Difaa EL Jadida beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 1-0 in Botola Pro on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan)).