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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
1 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
5/13/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 28Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima41%
×Draw26%
Difaa EL Jadida33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.39
Difaa EL Jadida
1.23

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 105 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Difaa EL Jadida
1.00

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Difaa EL Jadida
1.51

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
67%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Difaa EL Jadida
74%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
59%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
19%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
75%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
40%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
16%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
71%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
35%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
55%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
41%
level
26%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
33%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab RIF Hoceima 1–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Chabab RIF Hoceima and Difaa EL Jadida drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on May 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima).