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Dibba Al Hisn vs Dibba Al-Fujairah — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
4/17/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 28Dibba Al-Hisn Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dibba Al Hisn34%
×Draw25%
Dibba Al-Fujairah40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al Hisn
1.32
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.46

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 11% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 61 away

creates per match

Dibba Al Hisn
1.87
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.95

allows per match

Dibba Al Hisn
0.98
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.77

finishing

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par
Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al Hisn ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dibba Al Hisn or draw
60%
Dibba Al Hisn or Dibba Al-Fujairah
75%
Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah
66%

Winning margin

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
15%
Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
73%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
38%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
15%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
77%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
43%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
46%
Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al Hisn at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.87 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.95 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dibba Al Hisn scores more
34%
level
25%
Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
40%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dibba Al Hisn vs Dibba Al-Fujairah

Dibba Al Hisn and Dibba Al-Fujairah drew 1-1 in Division 1 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Dibba Al-Hisn Stadium in Dibba Al-Hisn.