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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Dibba Al Hisn — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
12/23/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 13Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah44%
×Draw25%
Dibba Al Hisn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.54
Dibba Al Hisn
1.27

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 21% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 86 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.97
Dibba Al Hisn
1.83

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.72
Dibba Al Hisn
1.12

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
69%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Dibba Al Hisn
75%
Draw or Dibba Al Hisn
56%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
22%
Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
79%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
45%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
20%
Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
72%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
36%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
58%
Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
44%
level
25%
Dibba Al Hisn scores more
31%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dibba Al-Fujairah 0 – 0 Dibba Al Hisn

Dibba Al-Fujairah and Dibba Al Hisn drew 0-0 in Division 1 on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.