Dibba Al Hisn 0–2 Al Urooba: Result & Stats

Dibba Al Hisn

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Al Urooba

9/9/2023

Division 1 · Round 1Dibba Al-Hisn Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Dibba Al Hisn41%

×Draw26%

Al Urooba33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dibba Al HisnExpected goals in this matchAl Urooba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.26

Dibba Al Hisn

1.43

Al Urooba

1.26

Dibba Al Hisn creates 13% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 72 away

1.87

creates per match

1.54

0.98

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Dibba Al Hisn

1.87

Al Urooba

1.54

allows per match

Dibba Al Hisn

0.98

Al Urooba

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al Hisn ↓

Al Urooba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dibba Al Hisn or draw

67%

Dibba Al Hisn or Al Urooba

74%

Draw or Al Urooba

59%

Winning margin

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+

19%

Al Urooba wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals

76%

Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals

42%

Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals

17%

Al Urooba 1+ goals

72%

Al Urooba 2+ goals

36%

Al Urooba 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)

55%

Al Urooba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al Hisn at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.87 + Al Urooba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Urooba attack 1.54 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dibba Al Hisn scores more

41%

level

26%

Al Urooba scores more

33%

Dibba Al Hisn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff