Al Urooba 2–3 Dibba Al Hisn: Result & Stats

Al Urooba

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Dibba Al Hisn

2/19/2023

Division 1 · Round 22Al Orooba Club / MS2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Al Urooba37%

×Draw25%

Dibba Al Hisn38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al UroobaExpected goals in this matchDibba Al Hisn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.48

Al Urooba

1.47

Dibba Al Hisn

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 86 away

1.81

creates per match

1.83

1.14

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Al Urooba

1.81

Dibba Al Hisn

1.83

allows per match

Al Urooba

1.14

Dibba Al Hisn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Urooba+0.00on par

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Urooba ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Urooba or draw

62%

Al Urooba or Dibba Al Hisn

75%

Draw or Dibba Al Hisn

63%

Winning margin

Al Urooba wins by 2+

18%

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Urooba 1+ goals

77%

Al Urooba 2+ goals

43%

Al Urooba 3+ goals

18%

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals

77%

Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals

43%

Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Al Urooba (draw refunded)

50%

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Urooba at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Urooba attack 1.81 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Al Urooba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Urooba scores more

37%

level

25%

Dibba Al Hisn scores more

38%

Dibba Al Hisn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff