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Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Jazira Al Hamra — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Al Jazira Al Hamra
Al Jazira Al Hamra
9/28/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 2Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dibba Al Hisn56%
×Draw22%
Al Jazira Al Hamra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al Hisn
1.96
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.15

Dibba Al Hisn creates 70% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dibba Al Hisn
1.87
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.32

allows per match

Dibba Al Hisn
0.98
Al Jazira Al Hamra
2.04

finishing

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par
Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al Hisn ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dibba Al Hisn or draw
78%
Dibba Al Hisn or Al Jazira Al Hamra
78%
Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra
44%

Winning margin

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
33%
Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
86%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
58%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
31%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals
68%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals
32%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
72%
Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al Hisn at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.87 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.96

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.32 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dibba Al Hisn scores more
56%
level
22%
Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more
22%

Dibba Al Hisn at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Jazira Al Hamra

Dibba Al Hisn beat Al Jazira Al Hamra 4-0 in Division 1 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Khor Fakkan.