Al Jazira Al Hamra 1–2 Dibba Al Hisn

Al Jazira Al Hamra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dibba Al Hisn

2/21/2026

Division 1 · Round 17Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra30%

×Draw23%

Dibba Al Hisn47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Jazira Al HamraExpected goals in this matchDibba Al Hisn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.79

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.39

Dibba Al Hisn

1.79

Dibba Al Hisn creates 29% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 86 away

1.66

creates per match

1.83

1.76

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.66

Dibba Al Hisn

1.83

allows per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.76

Dibba Al Hisn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira Al Hamra ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Jazira Al Hamra or draw

53%

Al Jazira Al Hamra or Dibba Al Hisn

77%

Draw or Dibba Al Hisn

70%

Winning margin

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

13%

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

75%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

40%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

16%

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals

83%

Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals

53%

Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

39%

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira Al Hamra at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.66 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

30%

level

23%

Dibba Al Hisn scores more

47%

Dibba Al Hisn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff