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Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Hamriyah — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Hamriyah
Al Hamriyah
Joao Vitor 20'
3/4/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 23Dibba Al-Hisn Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Dibba Al Hisn43%
×Draw25%
Al Hamriyah32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al Hisn
1.54
Al Hamriyah
1.29

Dibba Al Hisn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dibba Al Hisn
1.87
Al Hamriyah
1.60

allows per match

Dibba Al Hisn
0.98
Al Hamriyah
1.22

finishing

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par
Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al Hisn ↓

Al Hamriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dibba Al Hisn or draw
68%
Dibba Al Hisn or Al Hamriyah
75%
Draw or Al Hamriyah
57%

Winning margin

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
21%
Al Hamriyah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
79%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
45%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
20%
Al Hamriyah 1+ goals
72%
Al Hamriyah 2+ goals
37%
Al Hamriyah 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
57%
Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al Hisn at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Al Hamriyah away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.87 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Hamriyah attack 1.60 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dibba Al Hisn scores more
43%
level
25%
Al Hamriyah scores more
32%

Dibba Al Hisn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Joao Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Dibba Al Hisn 1–0 Al Hamriyah

Dibba Al Hisn beat Al Hamriyah 1-0 in Division 1 on March 4, 2024.

Goals: Joao Vitor (20').

The match was played at Dibba Al-Hisn Stadium in Dibba Al-Hisn.