Al Hamriyah 0–3 Dibba Al Hisn: Result & Stats

Al Hamriyah

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dibba Al Hisn

John 90+3'

Gilmar 60'

M. Almarbuii 22'

4/30/2023

Division 1 · Round 31Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Al Hamriyah32%

×Draw24%

Dibba Al Hisn44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HamriyahExpected goals in this matchDibba Al Hisn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.61

Al Hamriyah

1.35

Dibba Al Hisn

1.61

Dibba Al Hisn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 86 away

1.58

creates per match

1.83

1.39

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Al Hamriyah

1.58

Dibba Al Hisn

1.83

allows per match

Al Hamriyah

1.39

Dibba Al Hisn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw

56%

Al Hamriyah or Dibba Al Hisn

76%

Draw or Dibba Al Hisn

68%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+

14%

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals

74%

Al Hamriyah 2+ goals

39%

Al Hamriyah 3+ goals

15%

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals

80%

Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals

48%

Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)

42%

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.39 · 100 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.58 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more

32%

level

24%

Dibba Al Hisn scores more

44%

Dibba Al Hisn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Almarbuii

60'

Gilmar

90+3'

John

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff