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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al Thaid
Al Thaid
2/4/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 19Dibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah57%
×Draw24%
Al Thaid20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.74
Al Thaid
0.91

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 91% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 100 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.97
Al Thaid
1.10

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.72
Al Thaid
1.51

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Al Thaid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
80%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Thaid
76%
Draw or Al Thaid
43%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
32%
Al Thaid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
82%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
52%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
25%
Al Thaid 1+ goals
60%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
23%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
74%
Al Thaid (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.74

Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
57%
level
24%
Al Thaid scores more
20%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Dibba Al-Fujairah 2–2 Al Thaid

Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Thaid drew 2-2 in Division 1 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Dibba Stadium in Dibba Al Fujairah.