Al Thaid 0–2 Dibba Al-Fujairah: Result & Stats

Al Thaid

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dibba Al-Fujairah

5/17/2025

Division 1 · Round 28Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Thaid23%

×Draw24%

Dibba Al-Fujairah53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ThaidExpected goals in this matchDibba Al-Fujairah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.71

Al Thaid

1.05

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.71

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 63% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 61 away

1.33

creates per match

1.95

1.48

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Al Thaid

1.33

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.95

allows per match

Al Thaid

1.48

Dibba Al-Fujairah

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Thaid+0.00on par

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Thaid ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Thaid or draw

47%

Al Thaid or Dibba Al-Fujairah

76%

Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah

77%

Winning margin

Al Thaid wins by 2+

9%

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Al Thaid 1+ goals

65%

Al Thaid 2+ goals

28%

Al Thaid 3+ goals

9%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals

82%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals

51%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Al Thaid (draw refunded)

31%

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Thaid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Thaid attack 1.33 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.95 + Al Thaid defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Thaid scores more

23%

level

24%

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more

53%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff