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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Hamriyah — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al Hamriyah
Al Hamriyah
9/15/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Dibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah47%
×Draw25%
Al Hamriyah28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.59
Al Hamriyah
1.16

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 37% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.97
Al Hamriyah
1.60

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.72
Al Hamriyah
1.22

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Al Hamriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
72%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Hamriyah
75%
Draw or Al Hamriyah
53%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
24%
Al Hamriyah wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
80%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
47%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
21%
Al Hamriyah 1+ goals
69%
Al Hamriyah 2+ goals
32%
Al Hamriyah 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
63%
Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Al Hamriyah away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al Hamriyah attack 1.60 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
47%
level
25%
Al Hamriyah scores more
28%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3–0 Al Hamriyah

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Hamriyah 3-0 in Division 1 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Dibba Stadium in Dibba Al Fujairah.