Al Hamriyah 1–2 Dibba Al-Fujairah: Result & Stats

Al Hamriyah

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dibba Al-Fujairah

10/1/2024

Presidents Cup · Play-offsAl-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Hamriyah34%

×Draw23%

Dibba Al-Fujairah43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HamriyahExpected goals in this matchDibba Al-Fujairah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.73

Al Hamriyah

1.50

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.73

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.36

creates per match

2.00

1.45

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Al Hamriyah

1.36

Dibba Al-Fujairah

2.00

allows per match

Al Hamriyah

1.45

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw

57%

Al Hamriyah or Dibba Al-Fujairah

77%

Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah

66%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+

16%

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals

78%

Al Hamriyah 2+ goals

44%

Al Hamriyah 3+ goals

19%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals

82%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals

52%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)

44%

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.36 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 2.00 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more

34%

level

23%

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more

43%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff