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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Fujairah SC — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
2/26/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 21Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah52%
×Draw24%
Al Fujairah SC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.67
Al Fujairah SC
1.04

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 61% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.97
Al Fujairah SC
1.36

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.72
Al Fujairah SC
1.36

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Al Fujairah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
76%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Fujairah SC
76%
Draw or Al Fujairah SC
48%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
28%
Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
81%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
50%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
23%
Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
65%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
28%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
69%
Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Al Fujairah SC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.36 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
52%
level
24%
Al Fujairah SC scores more
24%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Fujairah SC

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Fujairah SC 3-0 in Division 1 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.