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Al Fujairah SC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah — Division 1 2018

Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
2/21/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 18Fujairah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Fujairah SC29%
×Draw25%
Dibba Al-Fujairah46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fujairah SC
1.23
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.60

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 30% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 61 away

creates per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.68
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.95

allows per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.26
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.77

finishing

Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par
Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fujairah SC ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Fujairah SC or draw
54%
Al Fujairah SC or Dibba Al-Fujairah
75%
Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah
71%

Winning margin

Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
12%
Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
71%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
35%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
13%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
80%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
47%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
39%
Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fujairah SC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.68 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.95 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Fujairah SC scores more
29%
level
25%
Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
46%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Fujairah SC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Fujairah SC 1-0 in Division 1 on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Fujairah Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.