Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dhofar vs Al Jazeera — AFC Cup 2018

Dhofar
Dhofar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera
2/11/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1The Salalah Youth Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dhofar39%
×Draw28%
Al Jazeera33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhofar
1.27
Al Jazeera
1.14

Dhofar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dhofar
1.17
Al Jazeera
1.27

allows per match

Dhofar
1.00
Al Jazeera
1.36

finishing

Dhofar+0.00on par
Al Jazeera+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhofar ↓

Al Jazeera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dhofar or draw
67%
Dhofar or Al Jazeera
72%
Draw or Al Jazeera
61%

Winning margin

Dhofar wins by 2+
17%
Al Jazeera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dhofar 1+ goals
72%
Dhofar 2+ goals
36%
Dhofar 3+ goals
14%
Al Jazeera 1+ goals
68%
Al Jazeera 2+ goals
32%
Al Jazeera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dhofar (draw refunded)
54%
Al Jazeera (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhofar at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Al Jazeera away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhofar attack 1.17 + Al Jazeera defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Jazeera attack 1.27 + Dhofar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dhofar scores more
39%
level
28%
Al Jazeera scores more
33%

Dhofar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dhofar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dhofar vs Al Jazeera

Dhofar beat Al Jazeera 1-0 in AFC Cup on February 11, 2020.

The match was played at The Salalah Youth Complex in Salalah.