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Al Jazeera vs Dhofar — AFC Cup 2018

Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera
CANC
00:00
Dhofar
Dhofar
11/1/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Jazeera49%
×Draw30%
Dhofar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jazeera
1.24
Dhofar
0.72

Al Jazeera creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Jazeera
1.73
Dhofar
1.00

allows per match

Al Jazeera
0.45
Dhofar
0.75

finishing

Al Jazeera+0.00on par
Dhofar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazeera ↓

Dhofar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Jazeera or draw
78%
Al Jazeera or Dhofar
70%
Draw or Dhofar
51%

Winning margin

Al Jazeera wins by 2+
22%
Dhofar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Jazeera 1+ goals
71%
Al Jazeera 2+ goals
35%
Al Jazeera 3+ goals
13%
Dhofar 1+ goals
51%
Dhofar 2+ goals
16%
Dhofar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Jazeera (draw refunded)
69%
Dhofar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazeera at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Dhofar away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazeera attack 1.73 + Dhofar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.24

Dhofar attack 1.00 + Al Jazeera defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Jazeera scores more
49%
level
30%
Dhofar scores more
22%

Al Jazeera at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Jazeera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Jazeera vs Dhofar — Match Preview

Al Jazeera face Dhofar on November 1, 2020 in this AFC Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Al Jazeera host Dhofar at Amman International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.