Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dhamk vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Pro League 2018

Dhamk
Dhamk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1/21/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 18Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Dhamk36%
×Draw25%
Al-Ahli Jeddah39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhamk
1.36
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Dhamk
1.32
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.65

allows per match

Dhamk
1.23
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.41

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw
61%
Dhamk or Al-Ahli Jeddah
75%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
64%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+
16%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals
74%
Dhamk 2+ goals
39%
Dhamk 3+ goals
16%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
76%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
42%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)
48%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.32 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Dhamk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dhamk scores more
36%
level
25%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
39%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dhamk 1 – 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Dhamk and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in Pro League on January 21, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.