Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–0 Damac: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Damac

Matheus Goncalves 56'

I. Toney 6'

D. Al Anazi 3' (OG)

4/4/2026

Pro League · Round 27King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah64%

×Draw21%

Damac15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchDamac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.99

Damac

0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 134% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

2.45

creates per match

0.80

0.90

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.45

Damac

0.80

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.90

Damac

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Damac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Damac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

85%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Damac

79%

Draw or Damac

36%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

39%

Damac wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

86%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

59%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

32%

Damac 1+ goals

57%

Damac 2+ goals

21%

Damac 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

81%

Damac (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Damac away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.45 + Damac defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.99

Damac attack 0.80 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

64%

level

21%

Damac scores more

15%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Z. Al Johani

Al-Ahli Jeddah · M

8.0

Match Events

3'

D. Al AnaziOwn goal

6'

I. Toney↳ Galeno

53'

M. Sulaiman← Ibanez

54'

Alhwsawi Sanousi Mohammed

56'

Matheus Goncalves↳ I. Toney

61'

Mohammed Abdulrahman

67'

K. Al Samiri← R. Sharahili

67'

A. Al Qahtani← A. R. Al Khaibre

71'

F. Al Buraikan← R. Mahrez

79'

M. Al Salkhadi← Y. Meite

82'

Firas Al-Buraikan

83'

E. Al Muwallad← Galeno

84'

S. Abdullah← Matheus Goncalves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliDamac

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots12

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.48

5Corners7

18Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots12

2On Target4

7Off Target5

1Blocked3

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

397Total Passes399

339Accurate Passes337

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-1.40Goals Prevented-1.40

Discipline

18Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0