Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Pro League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Damac23%
Al-Ahli Jeddah50%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 61% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Damac ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Damac at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches
Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Damac attack 1.16 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93
Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.67 + Damac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Al-Nassr
Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Taawon
Al-Ettifaq
NEOM
Al-Hazm
Al-Fayha
Al-Fateh
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Shabab
Al Kholood
Al RiyadhDamac
Al Okhdood
Al NajmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah on Monday, 23 February 2026 at 19:00. The match is part of the Pro League 2025/2026 season.
Pro League: Damac 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 1-0 in Pro League on February 23, 2026.
Goals: F. Kessie (37').
Damac controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 4.
The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.