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Devonport City vs Clarence Zebras — Tasmania NPL 2026

Devonport City
Devonport City
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Clarence Zebras
Clarence Zebras
7/12/2025Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 13Valley Road Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Devonport City68%
×Draw17%
Clarence Zebras15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devonport City
2.67
Clarence Zebras
1.21

Devonport City creates 121% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 57 away

creates per match

Devonport City
2.59
Clarence Zebras
1.56

allows per match

Devonport City
0.85
Clarence Zebras
2.75

finishing

Devonport City+0.00on par
Clarence Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devonport City ↓

Clarence Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Devonport City or draw
85%
Devonport City or Clarence Zebras
83%
Draw or Clarence Zebras
32%

Winning margin

Devonport City wins by 2+
47%
Clarence Zebras wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Devonport City 1+ goals
93%
Devonport City 2+ goals
74%
Devonport City 3+ goals
49%
Clarence Zebras 1+ goals
70%
Clarence Zebras 2+ goals
34%
Clarence Zebras 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Devonport City (draw refunded)
82%
Clarence Zebras (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devonport City at home — creates 2.59, concedes 0.85 · 59 matches

Clarence Zebras away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.75 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devonport City attack 2.59 + Clarence Zebras defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.67

Clarence Zebras attack 1.56 + Devonport City defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Devonport City scores more
68%
level
17%
Clarence Zebras scores more
15%

Devonport City at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Devonport City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Devonport City vs Clarence Zebras

Devonport City beat Clarence Zebras 7-0 in Tasmania NPL on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Valley Road Ground in Devonport.