Clarence Zebras 2–4 Devonport City: Result & Stats

Clarence Zebras

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Devonport City

3/21/2026

Tasmania NPL · Round 3Wentworth Park 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Clarence Zebras17%

×Draw17%

Devonport City66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clarence ZebrasExpected goals in this matchDevonport City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.75

Clarence Zebras

1.36

Devonport City

2.75

Devonport City creates 102% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

1.63

creates per match

2.88

2.61

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Clarence Zebras

1.63

Devonport City

2.88

allows per match

Clarence Zebras

2.61

Devonport City

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clarence Zebras+0.00on par

Devonport City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clarence Zebras ↓

Devonport City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Clarence Zebras or draw

34%

Clarence Zebras or Devonport City

83%

Draw or Devonport City

83%

Winning margin

Clarence Zebras wins by 2+

7%

Devonport City wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Clarence Zebras 1+ goals

74%

Clarence Zebras 2+ goals

39%

Clarence Zebras 3+ goals

16%

Devonport City 1+ goals

93%

Devonport City 2+ goals

75%

Devonport City 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Clarence Zebras (draw refunded)

21%

Devonport City (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clarence Zebras at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.61 · 57 matches

Devonport City away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.09 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clarence Zebras attack 1.63 + Devonport City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Devonport City attack 2.88 + Clarence Zebras defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Clarence Zebras scores more

17%

level

17%

Devonport City scores more

66%

Devonport City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Devonport City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff