Deutz 1–7 Bergisch Gladbach: Result & Stats

Deutz

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

Bergisch Gladbach

5/29/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 32SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz17%

×Draw19%

Bergisch Gladbach63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeutzExpected goals in this matchBergisch Gladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

2.29

Deutz

1.12

Bergisch Gladbach

2.29

Bergisch Gladbach creates 104% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

1.10

creates per match

1.92

2.67

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Deutz

1.10

Bergisch Gladbach

1.92

allows per match

Deutz

2.67

Bergisch Gladbach

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Deutz or draw

37%

Deutz or Bergisch Gladbach

81%

Draw or Bergisch Gladbach

83%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+

6%

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals

67%

Deutz 2+ goals

31%

Deutz 3+ goals

10%

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

90%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

66%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)

22%

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deutz scores more

17%

level

19%

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

63%

Bergisch Gladbach at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff