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Bergisch Gladbach vs Deutz — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
FT
2 – 0
Deutz
Deutz
11/14/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 15BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach68%
×Draw17%
Deutz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergisch Gladbach
2.60
Deutz
1.14

Bergisch Gladbach creates 128% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach
2.52
Deutz
1.11

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach
1.16
Deutz
2.68

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par
Deutz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Deutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw
85%
Bergisch Gladbach or Deutz
83%
Draw or Deutz
32%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
47%
Deutz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
92%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
73%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
47%
Deutz 1+ goals
68%
Deutz 2+ goals
32%
Deutz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
82%
Deutz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Deutz away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Deutz defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.60

Deutz attack 1.11 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more
68%
level
17%
Deutz scores more
15%

Bergisch Gladbach at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergisch Gladbach vs Deutz

Bergisch Gladbach beat Deutz 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at BELKAW-Arena in Bergisch Gladbach.