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Deusto vs Añorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deusto
Deusto
AWD
3 – 0
Añorga
Añorga
4/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deusto61%
×Draw23%
Añorga16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deusto
1.74
Añorga
0.74

Deusto creates 135% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deusto
1.30
Añorga
0.48

allows per match

Deusto
1.00
Añorga
2.18

finishing

Deusto+0.00on par
Añorga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deusto ↓

Añorga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deusto or draw
84%
Deusto or Añorga
77%
Draw or Añorga
39%

Winning margin

Deusto wins by 2+
35%
Añorga wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deusto 1+ goals
82%
Deusto 2+ goals
52%
Deusto 3+ goals
25%
Añorga 1+ goals
52%
Añorga 2+ goals
17%
Añorga 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deusto (draw refunded)
80%
Añorga (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deusto at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Añorga away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deusto attack 1.30 + Añorga defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Añorga attack 0.48 + Deusto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deusto scores more
61%
level
23%
Añorga scores more
16%

Deusto at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deusto vs Añorga — Match Preview

Deusto face Añorga on April 18, 2026 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deusto host Añorga at Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.