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Añorga vs Deusto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Añorga
Añorga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deusto
Deusto
12/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Añorga42%
×Draw26%
Deusto32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Añorga
1.42
Deusto
1.19

Añorga creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Añorga
1.53
Deusto
0.98

allows per match

Añorga
1.41
Deusto
1.31

finishing

Añorga+0.00on par
Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Añorga ↓

Deusto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Añorga or draw
68%
Añorga or Deusto
74%
Draw or Deusto
58%

Winning margin

Añorga wins by 2+
20%
Deusto wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Añorga 1+ goals
76%
Añorga 2+ goals
41%
Añorga 3+ goals
17%
Deusto 1+ goals
70%
Deusto 2+ goals
33%
Deusto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Añorga (draw refunded)
57%
Deusto (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Añorga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Añorga attack 1.53 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deusto attack 0.98 + Añorga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Añorga scores more
42%
level
26%
Deusto scores more
32%

Añorga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Añorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Añorga vs Deusto

Añorga beat Deusto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 13, 2025.