Kisvarda FC 0–1 Gyirmot SE: Result & Stats | NB II

Kisvarda FC

FT

0 – 1

Gyirmot SE

8/8/2015

NB II · Round 2Várkert Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kisvarda FC33%

×Draw31%

Gyirmot SE36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisvarda FCExpected goals in this matchGyirmot SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.04

Kisvarda FC

0.97

Gyirmot SE

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

0.67

creates per match

1.09

1.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kisvarda FC

0.67

Gyirmot SE

1.09

allows per match

Kisvarda FC

1.00

Gyirmot SE

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisvarda FC+0.00on par

Gyirmot SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvarda FC ↓

Gyirmot SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kisvarda FC or draw

64%

Kisvarda FC or Gyirmot SE

69%

Draw or Gyirmot SE

67%

Winning margin

Kisvarda FC wins by 2+

12%

Gyirmot SE wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kisvarda FC 1+ goals

62%

Kisvarda FC 2+ goals

25%

Kisvarda FC 3+ goals

7%

Gyirmot SE 1+ goals

65%

Gyirmot SE 2+ goals

28%

Gyirmot SE 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kisvarda FC (draw refunded)

47%

Gyirmot SE (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvarda FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Gyirmot SE away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvarda FC attack 0.67 + Gyirmot SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Gyirmot SE attack 1.09 + Kisvarda FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kisvarda FC scores more

33%

level

31%

Gyirmot SE scores more

36%

Gyirmot SE at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gyirmot SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff