Detroit City vs El Paso Locomotive — USL Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 72+ matches
Detroit City43%
El Paso Locomotive28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Detroit City creates 32% more chances
Season form · 72 home / 115 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Detroit City ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Detroit City at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.76 · 72 matches
El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 115 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Detroit City attack 1.14 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25
El Paso Locomotive attack 1.14 + Detroit City defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Detroit City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Detroit City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Detroit City host El Paso Locomotive on Saturday, 18 June 2022 at 16:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Detroit City vs El Paso Locomotive
Detroit City and El Paso Locomotive drew 1-1 in USL Championship on June 18, 2022.
Goals: P. Botello Faz (23'), E. Calvillo (32').
The match was played at Keyworth Stadium in Hamtramck, Michigan.