Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Detroit City vs El Paso Locomotive — US Open Cup 2018

Detroit City
Detroit City
CANC
23:30
El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotive
4/8/2020US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundKeyworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Detroit City51%
×Draw22%
El Paso Locomotive28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Detroit City
2.00
El Paso Locomotive
1.43

Detroit City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Detroit City
2.13
El Paso Locomotive
1.86

allows per match

Detroit City
1.00
El Paso Locomotive
1.86

finishing

Detroit City+0.00on par
El Paso Locomotive+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detroit City ↓

El Paso Locomotive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Detroit City or draw
72%
Detroit City or El Paso Locomotive
78%
Draw or El Paso Locomotive
49%

Winning margin

Detroit City wins by 2+
29%
El Paso Locomotive wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Detroit City 1+ goals
86%
Detroit City 2+ goals
59%
Detroit City 3+ goals
32%
El Paso Locomotive 1+ goals
76%
El Paso Locomotive 2+ goals
42%
El Paso Locomotive 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Detroit City (draw refunded)
65%
El Paso Locomotive (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detroit City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detroit City attack 2.13 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.00

El Paso Locomotive attack 1.86 + Detroit City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Detroit City scores more
51%
level
22%
El Paso Locomotive scores more
28%

Detroit City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Detroit City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Detroit City vs El Paso Locomotive — Match Preview

Detroit City face El Paso Locomotive on April 8, 2020 in this US Open Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Detroit City host El Paso Locomotive at Keyworth Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.