Detroit City 0–3 Colorado Springs: Result & Stats

Detroit City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Colorado Springs

9/27/2023

USL Championship · Round 38Keyworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Detroit City48%

×Draw26%

Colorado Springs25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Detroit CityExpected goals in this matchColorado Springs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.99

Detroit City

1.48

Colorado Springs

0.99

Detroit City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 133 away

1.14

creates per match

1.23

0.76

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Detroit City

1.14

Colorado Springs

1.23

allows per match

Detroit City

0.76

Colorado Springs

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Detroit City+0.00on par

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detroit City ↓

Colorado Springs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Detroit City or draw

75%

Detroit City or Colorado Springs

74%

Draw or Colorado Springs

52%

Winning margin

Detroit City wins by 2+

24%

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Detroit City 1+ goals

77%

Detroit City 2+ goals

43%

Detroit City 3+ goals

19%

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

63%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

26%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Detroit City (draw refunded)

66%

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detroit City at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.76 · 72 matches

Colorado Springs away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.82 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detroit City attack 1.14 + Colorado Springs defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Colorado Springs attack 1.23 + Detroit City defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Detroit City scores more

48%

level

26%

Colorado Springs scores more

25%

Detroit City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Detroit City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff