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Colorado Springs vs Detroit City — USL Championship 2026

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Detroit City
Detroit City
9/11/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 39Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Colorado Springs43%
×Draw26%
Detroit City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.42
Detroit City
1.16

Colorado Springs creates 22% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 78 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
Detroit City
1.22

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
Detroit City
1.31

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Detroit City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Detroit City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
69%
Colorado Springs or Detroit City
74%
Draw or Detroit City
57%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
21%
Detroit City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
76%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
41%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
17%
Detroit City 1+ goals
69%
Detroit City 2+ goals
32%
Detroit City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
58%
Detroit City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Detroit City away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Detroit City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Detroit City attack 1.22 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
43%
level
26%
Detroit City scores more
31%

Colorado Springs at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado Springs vs Detroit City

Detroit City beat Colorado Springs 2-1 in USL Championship on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Weidner Field in Colorado Springs.