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Detonit Plachkovica vs Kozuv Gevgelija — Second League 2019

Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
12/2/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 14Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Detonit Plachkovica52%
×Draw27%
Kozuv Gevgelija21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Detonit Plachkovica
1.45
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.80

Detonit Plachkovica creates 81% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 81 away

creates per match

Detonit Plachkovica
1.59
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.89

allows per match

Detonit Plachkovica
0.71
Kozuv Gevgelija
1.30

finishing

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par
Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detonit Plachkovica ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Detonit Plachkovica or draw
79%
Detonit Plachkovica or Kozuv Gevgelija
73%
Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija
48%

Winning margin

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
26%
Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
77%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
42%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
18%
Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
55%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
19%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
72%
Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detonit Plachkovica at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.71 · 59 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.59 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Detonit Plachkovica scores more
52%
level
27%
Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
21%

Detonit Plachkovica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Detonit Plachkovica 2–0 Kozuv Gevgelija

Detonit Plachkovica beat Kozuv Gevgelija 2-0 in Second League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Radovish.