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Detonit Plachkovica vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
9/16/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Detonit Plachkovica37%
×Draw28%
Besa Dobërdoll36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Detonit Plachkovica
1.21
Besa Dobërdoll
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

creates per match

Detonit Plachkovica
1.59
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

Detonit Plachkovica
0.71
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detonit Plachkovica ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Detonit Plachkovica or draw
64%
Detonit Plachkovica or Besa Dobërdoll
72%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
63%

Winning margin

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
16%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
70%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
34%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
12%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
70%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
33%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
51%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detonit Plachkovica at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.71 · 59 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.59 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Detonit Plachkovica scores more
37%
level
28%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
36%

Detonit Plachkovica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Detonit Plachkovica 2–0 Besa Dobërdoll

Detonit Plachkovica beat Besa Dobërdoll 2-0 in Second League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Radovish.